عنوان مقاله [English]
Background: One of the pre - requisite measures in each Health Delivery System is man power forecasting for that system.Both inadequacy and surplus to requirements are undesirable for the country. Therefore, the estimating should be relatively acceptable. Objective: The main objective of this study was to analysis of the needs to Clinical Specialists in country that were estimated by curriculum committees for the next 10 years. Method: In this study, 400 specialists from 34 different curriculum committees estimated the needs of the country to clinical specialists in 18 Subspecialty & 16 Fellowship domains by using some selected models in their committees. We analyzed the results of this man power forecasting process and compared them with together by using of 13 recognized models. Results: In this study, the total needs to Subspecialists were estimated 3040 trained individuals in 18 domains and the total needs to Fellowships were calculated 1180 individuals in 16 domains for the next 10 years. Most committees (25 out of 34 committees) used bench marking, workforce to population ratio with using of expert panels. Conclusion: For more exact man power forecasting we need a more powerful health delivery and surveillance system in country. However, we can use the results of this study,for adjusting the annually residents number acceptances.