دانشگاه علوم پزشکی شهید بهشتی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Introduction & AIM: Considering the emergent trends in world and Iran, and also length of time and high expense of post graduate medical education (PGME), considering innovative approach in strategic planning and using foresight study is an essential task. Aim of this research is to explain the importance and role of foresight and scenario development in purposeful development of PGME.
Method: This is an analytic- descriptive study. We conduct this comprehensive review of foresight literature to answer the research questions. Then, for purposeful development of PGME in Iran, a suitable framework of foresight study and applicable suggestions were proposed.
Results: Using expert opinion and interactions with innovative foresight approach of scenario writing, provides better image of alternative futures are being categorized in possible, probable and preferred levels. This leads to solutions and guidance for purposeful development of PGME in Iran in next decades.
Conclusions: We developed a new model for foresight of the Health Supply and Medical Professionals Education in Iran. In the first phase, we propose linear trend analyses by using the historical data of last decade’s growth trend to forecast the trend out to next 10 years. In the 2nd phase we suggest qualitative foresight methods. Panel expert and Scenario modeling are the main methods of our study to explore the implications of possible alternative futures. This foresight model provides flexibility in medical education strategic decision makings.